Rugby World Cup 2023 quarterfinal permutations

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With just one week of pool matches before the Rugby World Cup enters the fine end of the tournament, there is still plenty of play in each of the four pools.

A little confused about who might qualify, who’s completely knocked out, and what’s next for each team? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered with every transfer for the weekend ahead.

NB: Head-to-head records will separate the teams who are equal on points in the first instance, when three teams finish but the point difference is used to select the top team, before it goes back to head-to-head for two of the remaining races.

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at the pool

Current standings: France 13 points, New Zealand 10, Italy 10, Uruguay 5, Namibia 0

France:

– France will top the pool if they win against Italy (17 points + any bonus points)

– A loss would secure top spot (15) with two bonus points unless Italy got a tri-bonus point with a win (14), but they would still qualify second

– A loss to Italy with two forfeit bonus points (15), Italy gaining one bonus point (15) and New Zealand beating Uruguay with bonus points (15) could knock France out due to points difference and head-to-head rules.

– A loss without bonus points and a New Zealand win against Uruguay would knock France out of the tournament (13)

New Zealand:

– A bonus-point win over Uruguay would secure the quarter-finals (15)

– A win over Uruguay without a bonus point would qualify New Zealand (14), unless Italy beat France with a bonus point (15) and France secure a bonus point (14) due to a head-to-head. Head rules

– A win over Uruguay with a bonus point (15), an Italy bonus point (15) win plus two losses to France to earn bonus points (15), will see New Zealand top the pool thanks to a better points difference.

– A loss to Uruguay with no bonus points (10) and Italy’s win over France (14) would knock New Zealand out of the tournament.

Italy:

– A bonus point win over France (15) as well as denying France any bonus points and a New Zealand win over Uruguay (14 +BP) would see Italy through to the quarter-finals.

– A win without bonus points (14), France plus two bonus point losses (15) and a New Zealand win against Uruguay (14 +BP) would knock Italy out of the tournament due to head-to-heads.

– A New Zealand win against Uruguay along with a loss to France would knock Italy out of the tournament.

– A New Zealand win against Uruguay with a bonus point (15), plus Italy’s bonus point (15) win against France with two bonus point wins (15), will see New Zealand top the pool due to a better points differential. Italy will knock out France on head to head basis

– A point will ensure Italy’s qualification for RWC 2027

Uruguay:

– Uruguay must beat New Zealand with a bonus point and at least 80 points, and France must beat Italy to advance to the quarterfinals.

– A loss to New Zealand will knock them out of contention

Namibia:

– Namibia cannot qualify for the quarter finals after finishing the tournament with zero points

Pool B

Current standings: South Africa 15 points, Ireland 14, Scotland 10, Tonga 0, Romania 0

South Africa:

– South Africa (15 points) will top Pool B if Scotland (15) beat Ireland and deny Ireland a bonus point (14).

– South Africa (15) qualify second for quarter-finals if Ireland (18 + BP) beat Scotland (10 + BP)

– If Scotland beat Ireland by 21 points (15) and Ireland get a bonus point (15), South Africa (15) will fail to qualify due to the head-to-head rule.

Ireland:

– Two points from the match against Scotland (16) will see Ireland secure top spot.

– If Ireland get a losing bonus point (15) and Scotland don’t get a bonus point (14) then Ireland will top the pool on head to head rules

– A loss without bonus points would see Ireland fail to progress to the quarter-finals

Scotland:

– Scotland must beat Ireland (14) and deny Ireland a bonus point (14) to finish second on head-to-head rules and qualify for the quarters.

– If Scotland wins with a bonus point (15) and Ireland gets a bonus point (15), the differential points will determine who will top Pool B, who will finish second

– Scotland need to win by 21 points or more to claim top spot over South Africa

– Scotland will fail to progress to the quarter-finals if they lose

Tonga:

– Tonga cannot qualify for the quarter finals as they will play Romania sitting on zero points

Romania:

– Romania cannot qualify for the quarter finals as they will play Tonga sitting on zero points

Pool C

Current standings: Wales 14, Australia 11, Fiji 10, Georgia 3, Portugal 2

Wales:

– Wales have already qualified for the quarter-finals, and will top Pool C if they secure just one point (15) against Georgia.

– A loss without bonus points (14) and a win against Portugal with Fiji bonus points (15) would leave Wales second in the pool

Australia:

– Australia (11) must beat Fiji without bonus points (10) to reach quarter-finals

– Australia will not qualify for the quarter-finals if Fiji secure at least one point (11) against Portugal

Fiji:

– Fiji needs only one point (11) to reach the quarter-finals

– If Fiji lose without bonus points (10) they will fail to qualify for the quarter finals

Georgia:

– Georgia cannot qualify for the quarter-finals as they face Wales sitting on three points

Portugal:

– Portugal fail to qualify for quarter-finals as they face Fiji sitting on two points

Pool d

Current standings: England 14, Argentina 9, Japan 9, Samoa 6, Chile 0

England:

– England (14) have already qualified for the quarter-finals and will top Pool D regardless of this weekend’s result

Argentina:

– A win over Japan will earn Argentina (13 + BP) a place in the quarterfinals

– A draw with both sides achieving BP will qualify Argentina on differential points

– Confirming a BP with Japan (12) would knock Argentina (11) out of the tournament

– A draw without either side gaining BP and Samoa losing to England will qualify Argentina on differential points.

– Argentina will be knocked out of the tournament if they lose to Japan

Japan:

– A win over Argentina would put Japan (13+ BP) into the quarterfinals

– A draw with both sides gaining a BP will knock Japan out on points differential

– A draw with Japan would secure the quarter-finals, securing a bonus point (12).

– A draw without either side achieving BP and a Samoa loss to England would knock Japan out

-A loss would knock Japan out

Samoa:

– Samoa must win against England by 29 points and get a bonus point (11) and Argentina and Japan draw without bonus points (11) to qualify Samoa second on differential points.

– Samoa will be eliminated if they win by less than 29 points

-Samoa will be knocked out with a loss

Chile:

– Chile did not qualify for the quarter finals as they finished the tournament with zero points

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